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Economic Stimulus Will Fail Says Harry S. Dent
posted by David Wolf on Feb 28, 2009 | Comments (29) | Permalink | Trackback URL
HS Dent, is a non-for-profit organization with a mission to help people understand the times in economic terms. He’s the author of The Great Boom Ahead (1992) and most recently, The Great Depression Ahead.
At the core of all of Dent’s research, analysis and projection models is demography. That is, that demographics drive economic cycles more than any other factor. People, he says, have predictable life-cycles, behaviors and stages that correlate with spending, the primary driver of economic cycles throughout history.
Dent has a dedicated team that digs deep into analyzing many complex economic cycles, records the history and patterns they create, then back-tests the projections they make, continually revising those projection as the dynamics change.
The podcast will be posted here on SBTV.com soon. In it, you’ll here me ask him how he suggests small business people manage these times of transition. He says it is NOT a time to grow your business, but rather a time to “hunker-down”, trim unnecessary business units, products, assets in order to weather the storm. That storm, says Dent, will last until roughly 2014, after which many opportunities for investment will be available to those with cash.
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Although I agree that demographics can have an adverse effect on the economy, I believe other factors involving the global market place have a greater effect on what is happening in our economy. If you look at the automotive industry for example, the fact that U.S. automakers have not been able to produce a competitive fuel efficient car it makes sense why they are failing.
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May be there some specific reason found out for the failing.
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AUSTRALIA’S sharemarket will halve in value, house prices will slump as much as 40 per cent and unemployment will climb to 10 per cent.
That’s the bold prediction from economic forecaster Harry Dent, who says a bigger crash is ahead for the global economy within the next two years.
And while Australia’s strong financial system, links to China and young working population have cushioned the nation from the economic turmoil so far, Mr Dent says smart investors are cashing up in preparation for “the Mother of all depressions”.high jumping
Our guests on this edition are blazing a new trail in how social networking and relationship technology can work for entrepreneurs around the globe. Adrie Reinders and Marion Freijsen are the co-founders of E-Factor—-a fast-growing, vibrant online community and virtual marketplace designed for entrepreneurs, by entrepreneurs.Online universities
If indeed the mind is set to this negativity, it will surely attracts especially if its so strong. But if love and understanding and that much coveted cooperation prevails, this economic stimulus will succeed.
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I can’t predict the result of economic stimulus efforts by the government now. But as an effort i’m very optimize and hope the economic stimulus will run in right rail. I hope so.
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Can we please get a list of all the nay sayers in about a year from now, line them up and kick em in the ass for the negativity.
Lets see how it will fail… I dont think it will.
The scenario has changed now and the economic condition is getting good in most of the countries although slowly but it’s a positive sign and so economic stimulus can never said to be failing now.
Harry was right in his statement when the economic condition was very bad all over the world because that time there was a chance of economic stimulus failing at that period but speaking of now,it won’t fail.
Economy is getting stable slowly all over the world.The bad times are passing away and people are hoping to step forward once again in the hope of good.So this statement is no longer that much considerable.
Everybody seems to be talking about it. “We had to stop doing xyz because of current economic conditions.” Yep, times are tough for many businesses and it’s easy to put the blame on the economy. You may even be doing it yourself. But it’s important
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If people will keep on focusing on the negative aspects of the economy, then it’ll really be difficult for the global market to push through and succeed. Perhaps you’re just being realistic or something but instead of always releasing negative outlooks and predictions, why not speak optimism and believe that success and abundance are not far behind.
It’s the difference between reaction and pro-action. I’m not saying ignore the economy. But a continuous strategy of reaction puts you behind those companies being proactive. If you’re plan is to lay low until things get better, you’ll be ill-prepared to succeed when they do.
Everybody seems to be talking about it. We had to stop doing xyz because of current economic conditions. Yep, times are tough for many businesses and its easy to put the blame on the economy. You may even be doing it yourself. But its important
While things may be tough right now, they are also a golden opportunity. There are plenty of businesses using current economic conditions as an excuse. Or maybe you can use them as a reason to prepare for future economic conditions.
The economic recovery may well have already begun in Asia and Europe, and certainly the mechanics are in place for significant improvements in U.S. real GDP even without any changes in the underlying fundamentals. However, I remain persuaded that a real U.S. recovery requires an increase, nor further decreases, in the number of Americans working.
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The cash for clunkers program was expected to have had quite an effect on retail sales. However motor vehicle and parts rose only 2.4%; expectations had looked for a gain more than double. Sales at auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up just 2.8%, a healthy gain to be certain but far less than many economists expected. The initial impression is that, perhaps, some of the cash for clunkers sales will find their way into the August data.
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If wed seen these kinds of numbers in the absence of the cash for clunkers incentives, I would have viewed it as a strong suggestion that the economic recovery has begun.
Small businesses are the backbone of a community. They provide flavor and character, and they do the hard work of a community. Small businesses are essential to a growing economy.
What do you think?